Who will win the Oscar, according to statistics

This year’s Oscars are right around the corner (March 12, to be specific) and we know you’re thinking what everyone else is: Who will take home an Oscar on the night?

You might think it’s impossible to know, and while I’m sure you can never be 100% sure, there are ways to narrow down who can win the big prizes if you look back at the history of the glitzy ceremony.

Related: Everything everywhere at once leads this year’s Oscar nominations

So that’s what we did to try and highlight the likely winners for Best Picture, Directing, and all four acting categories. Don’t sue us if we’re wrong, it’s just a guideline for a possible win.

Best Image

Indicated: All quiet on the western front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Inisherin’s Banshees, elvis, Everything everywhere at once, The Fabelmans, TAR, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, women talking

Probable winner: Everything everywhere at once


It may have lost at the BAFTA, but Everything everywhere at once seems as close as possible to winning Best Picture at the Oscars, given its run to date during this year’s awards race.

Most notably, it won the Producers Guild of America (PGA) Award for Best Theatrical Film which, in the 33 years it has been running, correctly predicted 23 Best Picture winners, including CODA It is nomadic land in the past two years.

But it’s not just a victory. Everything everywhere… it also received top honors at the Directors Guild of America (DGA) Awards and the ensemble award at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards.

It is also expected to win Original Screenplay at the Writers Guild of America (WGA) Awards on March 5. The film also won Best Picture at the Critics’ Choice Awards in January.

If it receives the WGA award, the odds are in its favor, as no film has won all four guild awards – PGA, DGA, SAG and WGA – and not won Best Picture at the Oscars.

The potential underdog is All quiet on the western front after his surprising BAFTA victory. Netflix’s anti-war film received an impressive nine nominations and cannot be fully counted.

felix kammerer, all quiet on the western front


Best Picture is the only Oscar category that has a preferential voting system to decide its winner, with all Academy members giving their top five among nominees.

If a film scores more than 50% of the #1 pick then it wins, but if not then the lowest rating is dropped and the #2 picks are used until a film has more than 50%. Everything everywhere… could be divisive among Oscar voters, where All quiet… you can get more consistent rankings.

what goes in Everything everywhere…the favor of it is that the PGAs use the exact same voting system and it still won top honors there.


Indicated: Martin McDonagh (Inisherin’s Banshees), Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything everywhere at once), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans), Todd Field (TAR), Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness)

Probable winner: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything everywhere at once)

daniel kwan, daniel scheinert, everything everywhere at once

A24/Allyson Riggs

As mentioned above, Everything everywhere at once won Best Directing in a Feature Film at the DGAs, meaning Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert are strong favorites to win at the Oscars.

There have only been eight occasions in the DGA’s 74-year history when the winner missed out on Oscar glory. More recently, this happened in 2020, when DGA winner Sam Mendes lost to Bong Joon-ho at the Oscars.

The Daniels lost to Steven Spielberg at the Golden Globes, but they also beat Spielberg at the Critics’ Choice Awards, so while you can never fully discount the legendary filmmaker, the duo seems like a solid bet.

Actor in a Leading Role

Indicated: Austin Butler (elvis), Colin Farrell (Inisherin’s Banshees), Brendan Fraser (The whale), Paulo Mescal (After Sun), Bill Nighy (Living)

Probable winner: Brendan Fraser (The whale)

Brendan Fraser the Whale


While we’ve gone with Brendan Fraser here, Actor in a Leading Role is probably a three-way fight between Fraser, Austin Butler, and Colin Farrell. Unlike previous years, no actors enjoyed a cleanup during the awards run.

Fraser won at Critics’ Choice Awards and SAGs, Butler triumphed at Golden Globes (Drama) and BAFTAs, and Farrell won Golden Globes (Musical/Comedy) alongside multiple wins in various critics’ groups in the US.

Normally, we would see SAGs being the best indicator for an acting award and SAGs have equaled the Oscar winner 22 times out of 28, which points to a good night at the Oscars for Brendan Fraser.

However, The whale it was not nominated for an Academy Award for Best Picture. You’d have to go back to 2010, where the Oscar-winning lead actor came from a movie that wasn’t nominated for Best Picture. (That was Jeff Bridges for crazy heartfans indeed.)

This opens the door to an Austin Butler or Colin Farrell win, and if you asked us now, we’d say that if Fraser doesn’t win, it will be Butler taking home the Oscar.

Actress in a Leading Role

Indicated: Cate Blanchet (TAR), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Andrea Riseborough (for Leslie), Michael Williams (The Fabelmans), Michelle Yeoh (Everything everywhere at once)

Probable winner: Cate Blanchet (TAR)

Cate Blanchett, tar


Even at the SAGs, we would have said that Cate Blanchett would lose Actress in a Leading Role, and while we’re still backing her to win the Oscar, we’re not as confident as we would have been a week ago.

Blanchett has won virtually every award, including the Critics’ Choice Awards, the Golden Globe (Drama) and the BAFTA. Such a clean sweep would have pointed to a SAG win on the way to Oscar glory.

And yet, Blanchett was beaten at the SAGs by Michelle Yeoh, who became the first Asian woman to win the lead actress award at the event. The SAGs have matched the Oscars 20 out of 28 times throughout their history.

Yeoh also won a Golden Globe (Musical/Comedy) and with this SAGs story, she could defy the odds and win at the Oscars. If Blanchett won, it would be her third Oscar, but if Yeoh won, it would be her first.

Can Oscar voters resist such a romance? We’ll find out at night.

Actor in supporting role

Indicated: Brendan Gleeson (Inisherin’s Banshees), Brian Tyree Henry (Sidewalk), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Barry Keoghan (Inisherin’s Banshees), Ke Huy Quan (Everything everywhere at once)

Probable winner: Ke Huy Quan (Everything everywhere at once)

ke huy quan in everything everywhere at once


If there was one acting award that we’re almost 100% confident in, it’s Ke Huy Quan winning the Academy Award for Supporting Actor to cap off a wonderful comeback story that has been long overdue.

Quan has won virtually every award to date, barring Barry Keoghan besting him at the BAFTA (which sometimes goes left for a home win). Keoghan was unable to repeat this surprise victory at the SAGs, where Quan continued his march to glory.

SAGs equaled Oscars 19 out of 28 times when it comes to supporting actor, which is actually the lowest success rate for any of the acting categories. Still, it would be a huge bummer if anyone other than Quan was holding the Oscar at the end of the night.

Don’t let us down, Academy.

Supporting actress

Indicated: Angela Basset (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The whale), Kerry Condon (Inisherin’s Banshees), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything everywhere at once), Stephanie Hsu (Everything everywhere at once)

Probable winner: Angela Basset (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)

black panther, wakanda forever

marvel studios

We’ll be honest: we’ve chosen Angela Bassett here in the hope, not the expectation, that she might be Marvel’s first Oscar-winning actress.

Just like Blanchett, Bassett looked like a sure winner a few weeks ago after winning both the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice Awards. But it’s been a bumpier road for Bassett ever since.

Her Oscar rivals Kerry Condon and Jamie Lee Curtis won her over at the BAFTA and SAG respectively. The SAGs correctly predicted the supporting actress 20 times out of 28 throughout her history, which could be good news for Curtis.

Deep down, we really hope that, out of nowhere, Stephanie Hsu can triumph at the Oscars as she should have everywhere this awards season. If we’re realistic though, it would be a straight shot between Bassett and Curtis.

At the moment, it’s probably Curtis to lose, but Bassett can make a late wave.

The 95th Academy Awards ceremony takes place on Sunday, March 12, in the United States. It will be broadcast live on Sky Cinema Greats and Sky Showcase at 12pm on Monday 13th March in the UK.

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