Wolves can beat Fulham on Friday Night Football as Jones Knows explains why Marco Silva’s side are not as solid defensively as basic stats would suggest.
Fulham v Wolves, Friday 8pm live on Sky Sports
Fulham made my brain hurt this season. Working them out is like trying to solve a Rubik’s Cube while Carol Vorderman yells out some mental arithmetic at you to solve.
Fulham have conceded just four goals in nine Premier League games since the World Cup break – the fewest by any team in that period. However, my confidence to trust them when the favorites for a football match continues to be tested by expected goals against data that screams that they are vastly outperforming. In nine consecutive games they have conceded chances that should have equated to 12.62 goals scored – they confirmed this in Brighton last weekend, where they conceded 2.22 expected goals but somehow kept a clean sheet.
That kind of worrisome defensive data has hurt their results all season, despite picking up 38 points – the most points by a promoted team after 24 games in a Premier League season since Wigan in 05/06. Incredibly, Fulham have the worst overall defensive record in the league in terms of expected goals (41.2).
Friday, February 24th at 7pm
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Such is their drive, team spirit and experienced manager on the bench they can continue to challenge these dire metrics but as someone who likes to respect the underlying numbers we have to deflect Fulham who could also be without Aleksandar Mitrovic , on 13/10 with Sky Bet. Backing Wolves to a no bet draw at 6/5 seems like a smart move.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Everton v Aston Villa, Saturday, 3pm
Scoring goals will remain a huge problem for Everton despite back-to-back home wins. Only 17 scored this season – the fewest in the league alongside Wolves – makes it very difficult to trust them when they carry the favorites tag against a team like Villa who are full of attacking talent. Unai Emery’s side have scored in each of their last 10 games – 17 in total – and Ollie Watkins could become the first Villa player to score in five consecutive Premier League games.
I’m on the side of an away win when assessing match prices, but there are bits of value to piece together regarding the attacking departure of Amadou Onana, who has been pushed into a more attacking role under Sean Dyche.
He has all the attributes to blossom into a midfield powerhouse, but is a little tough around the edges, as seen in his finishing of his three shots on target as he breaks into the midfield attack in the win over Leeds. He is an impressive 7/4 with Sky Bet for posting two or more shots on goal, where he will be a threat not only from open play but also from set pieces.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Leeds v Southampton, Saturday, 3pm
Javi Gracia will bring unity, diligence and discipline to Leeds United in the short term. His Watford side, who finished 11th and reached the FA Cup Final, weren’t too easy on the eye, but boy were they tough to beat. During his 56 games in charge of the club, Watford received more yellow cards than any other team and suffered the third most fouls in the Premier League.
He is parachuted straight into the fires of a relegation battle at Elland Road with still bottom Southampton in town. I would expect the foul count to be high in an intense atmosphere and referee Peter Bankes to be very busy with his cards. He’s a referee who can quickly lose control when things heat up, with seven of his 21 games officiated this season seeing 50 or more reserve points shown and five of them seeing 70 or more points shown. The 6/5 with Sky Bet for the game to go over 50 points in reserve looks very fair at lay odds.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Leicester v Arsenal, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
I think you’ll find better 4/6 shots with Sky Bet this weekend than with Arsenal. Leicester are a dangerous team, but they will give space to Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka. Goals on the menu then.
Leicester may have come up short in a 3-0 loss to Manchester United but their attacking process remains strong, with the Foxes posting 19 shots on target for an expected goal tally of 1.63. Brendan Rodgers won’t change his fluid, risky style even for the league leaders, so I’m looking to back them up to create plenty of action towards Aaron Ramsdale’s goal. In the last 11 games in which James Maddison has played more than 45 minutes, Leicester have posted four or more shots on goal in 10 of those matches, with the only game failing in that run in last weekend’s defeat, where they surprisingly managed just three on target. of his 19 efforts.
With such confidence and quality in their attack, the 4/5 over them with Sky Bet to post four or more shots on goal is certainly a great runner – as is the 7/4 for five or more.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
West Ham v Nottingham Forest, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
There will be no surprises as to how David Moyes will approach this one. Rinse and repeat tactics from the 2-0 victory over Everton at home, which was a classic Moyes game plan of soaking up possession and hitting the counterattack. The problem is that the opposing coach will not be Frank Lampard this time, it will be Steve Cooper – he certainly won’t fall into the same traps that Moyes prepared for Lampard. The 8/11 with Sky Bet on a home win looks easy to oppose.
I’ll take a basic bet on West Ham’s home games in regards to their slow-starting nature, especially when the atmosphere is flat. Opposing teams have managed two or more shots on goal in eight of the last nine first half Premier League games at the London Stadium. The only team that failed to do so was Everton in their final match under Lampard. Forest carry enough threat through Brennan Johnson and Morgan Gibbs-White to be confident on 5/4 with Sky Bet for first half shots on goal to land again in what could have been a nervous occasion for the hosts.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Bournemouth v Manchester City, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Pep Guardiola has flirted with exaggeration by blaming Manchester City’s slight decline this season on his travel schedule. He labeled his team’s trip to Tottenham a few weeks ago as a trip to Europe following City’s 1-0 defeat at Spurs. You could tell that grueling run of games was on his mind when asked after RB Leipzig’s equalizer on Wednesday night. This trip to Bournemouth is the fourth away game they’ve traveled 2,680 miles in 10 days – and there’s Bristol City at Ashton Gate to come on Tuesday in the FA Cup fifth round.
Hopefully City will be in ‘job done’ mode, aiming to reserve energy for the next two games as they negotiate their way through this tricky schedule. When it comes to a team like City, who dominate the market and the expectation of goals is high, I am happy to oppose the goals.
City’s attack isn’t exactly pumping at the moment either, especially away from home. Erling Haaland has only scored in two of their last nine away games in all competitions, while overall City have scored just 11 times in their last 11 away games, scoring just two or more in just two of those matches – away at Leeds at Boxing Day and Arsenal. Furthermore, eight of those games were below the 2.5 goal line. An away win with under 2.5 goals in the game looks like a 100/30 smart game with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
Crystal Palace v Liverpool, Saturday 7.45pm, live on Sky Sports
Liverpool somehow managed to get within 6/4 shooting with Sky Bet to finish in the top four. That seems a little short to me, considering this is a team that has scored an average of 1.8 goals per game since the World Cup, including three or more goals conceded in five of those 13 games. With players returning to attack and Darwin Nunez and Mohamed Salah able to take games away from teams in the blink of an eye, Jurgen Klopp’s side could just cross the finish line.
But until we see evidence that the midfield and defense function efficiently without the ball, it’s safe to assume that high-quality attacking players will restrict Liverpool’s progress up the table. Palace has that quality.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Tottenham v Chelsea, Sunday 1.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Forecast to follow…
SCORE PREDICTION: xx
Carabao Cup Final: Manchester United v Newcastle, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Forecast to follow…