Overwatch 2 game director Aaron Keller has been doing something really cool lately: talking about Overwatch 2. Blizzard’s de facto voice in Overwatch matters has recently made it a goal to communicate with players more frequently about the current state of the game. game, and the man is on a roll. So far, with his “Director’s Take” series, Keller has written about the classified problems (opens in new tab)the future of arcade mode and the failed experiment that are map pools (opens in new tab).
It’s refreshing to see so much transparency from Overwatch’s top brass on the topics most important to everyday players and today’s blog on win rates and hero popularity. (opens in new tab) is easily the most illuminating yet.
Right off the bat, Keller shares some interesting observations about Overwatch 2’s ranked meta in the first few weeks of Season 3. For example, “most supports are viable at nearly all skill levels,” something that didn’t quite ring true. in Season 1. It also confirms a development players have noticed when looking at semi-reliable stat aggregation sites like Overbuff (opens in new tab): Brigitte is having a moment right now.
“Brigitte really broke through this season and has the highest win rate at nearly every skill level except the Top 500, where Zen takes the lead, with both averaging nearly a 55% win rate,” Keller said. “At the other end of the spectrum are Kiriko and Moira at around 45%.”
While you’d think that those playing a competitive shooter, particularly in its most competitive mode, would gravitate towards heroes with the highest win rates, Keller says that’s not the case (names in bold by me):
“When we look at who is actually playing, the main supporters are A-N-A, KirikoIt is Compassion for almost all skill levels all the way up to Silver and Bronze, where Moira is quite the pick.
“It goes to show that the heroes with the highest win rates aren’t always the heroes that get played the most.”
This goes to show that the heroes with the highest win rates are not always the heroes that get played the most.
Aaron Keller
I find that fascinating. We know that in a competitive environment like ranked Overwatch, it can feel like sticking to the consensus-adopted goal of the month is all that matters. We also know that it can feel like teammates are choosing heroes based on their preferences, not necessarily what’s best for their team composition, so it’s interesting to see the official numbers backing this up. Keller notes that it is “counter-intuitive” that Kiriko is so popular despite winning less often, and on the other hand, Briggite constantly wins with a much smaller presence.
There are several possible conclusions from this. I tend to think this suggests that, even at high levels of play, Overwatch players don’t like to feel trapped by a small group of chosen “best” heroes. People like to play their favorite heroes and, in fact, they are unlikely to switch (opens in new tab) for a hero they don’t like.
As Keller mentions, disparities in win/pick rates could be related to other factors that aren’t being directly compared here, such as overall team composition or map differences. Either way, Keller says the team “tends to think that highly skilled players keep picking certain heroes for good reasons” and is gathering additional metrics to study this. “If it’s fruitful, expect to hear more about it.”
Anyway, I think the numbers indicate that there’s a significant portion of the Overwatch 2 community (a likely majority, even) for whom the meta isn’t important. And if most players don’t care about the meta, how much should Blizzard care?
Maybe you need to keep things even enough that the “best” heroes are only the best by a few percentage points. We’ve certainly heard about it when supports weren’t getting enough love. (opens in new tab) and Sojourn was driving everyone to oblivion. It’s safe to say that players care about each hero’s viability, so their favorites never go out of style, and based on this data, that might be enough.